Disclaimer: I am going to try to make a case for what I believe the Celtics roster should look like next season. I've never done this before, so perhaps I will forget or be unaware of certain influencing factors (feel free to correct me, thought). Bash me if you like, but I recommend a normal discussion based on evidence and/or common sense, like I will attempt to give now.
I think the overall strategy is going to be to build a playoff team. We are still going to have KG (who underwent successful surgery and should be good to go), Rondo (who's game has vastly improved), Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce (our play-off master). Making the play-offs, while never automatic, will probably happen. Therefore, I think the idea will be to surround these guys with play-off-proven guys to make another run at a title before thinking about replacing veterans with younger talent. Ainge himself said here, "I don’t anticipate any trades happening in this offseason involving any of our core players."
Anyways, starting with our guys first:
Celtics free agents (players who will need a contract extension or a new contract to continue playing):
Restricted FA's ("restricted" means that if another team signs a contract with the player, the celtics have 15 days to match that contract and keep the player, or let him sign with the other team. Otherwise the player signs with no one.)
Leon Powe
Glen Davis
Unrestricted FA's (The player can sign with whichever team he wants or with no one)
Mikki Moore
Stephon Marbury
Eddie House (Eddie has a player option which means he can extend his contract for another year for the same salary as last season).
I think Powe and Davis will be kept. Davis's performance in the playoffs this year exceeded all expectations, especially on the offensive end. Likewise, Powe's consistency and his 2008 playoff performance was also excellent. Plus Powe, from what I hear, is a Doc Rivers' favorite and a total team player. The only issue I see here is if signing both of these guys becomes a financial strain, they may just keep one. If this is the case, my guess would be Powe stays, since both are proven post-season players but Powe has better post moves, consistency, and defense. The Celtics front office has expressed interest in another jump shooter, which could mean that they are going to let Davis go (he has a jump shot, and a pretty good one now, as opposed to Powe, which has no jump shot), or it could mean that they love jump shooters and would rather sign Davis. Again, I just hope they both stay.
I think the Celtics will consider other options and probably find one before resigning Mikki. People argue that his decent jump shooting and length make him a hard player to replace, but I don't see that outweighing his poor fouling, and lack of defense, outside of the occasional block. Plus he is thin and gets muscled around in the paint a lot on both ends.
Marbury is a tough call. There aren't really many (if any) choices if the C's want a different back-up point guard. Though he saw limited playing time, he didn't perform that well. Ultimately, I think he will be gone. This will leave us with shooting guards and Rondo, which seemed to work, pre-marbury, partially because Rondo is young and can handle a lot of minutes. Pruitt, a trade, a lucky draft pick and/or even maybe Tony Allen may all help this cause.
I think House will be back too. I am concerned because he ended last year with such a bang that other teams may overvalue him and offer him more money than we would, but his reputation for being streaky is well-known, plus I think he likes it here. Honestly, I would love him to stay here because he spreads defenses, gets the crowd going and the celtics know how to use him perfectly. They give him the ball a few times when he comes in, if he knocks down shots, he can go on a run and decimate a team from 3-land. If he isn't feeling it, they rest him or use him as a decoy to spread defense because even if he isn't rolling, teams know now to never give him open looks. Plus I don't think anyone has as quick a shot as House. His defense is the only problem here, but I don't think it's a big enough problem to justify letting him go.
Now for the rest of the free agents in the league. I think, given the strategy I mentioned first, that there are probably only a few players the Celtics would want to sign, and the team will probably remain close to the same as last season. The Celtics biggest interest will be in the Center and Point Guard positions, I would have to believe. Also, our payroll was well over the salary cap last year and will be well over the salary cap again this year if major changes are not made. I'm not going into the rulebook of the NBA salary cap because it is between "US tax code" and "Boston's road system" on the list of World's Most Convoluted Things. Just know that generally speaking, the further over it you are, the more money you will have to pay to the NBA on top of the salaries you pay. Although no one wants to pay luxury taxes, this might not be a big deal to our owners, cause they are filthy füçĸîñg rich (note my censoring, which makes the censored word virtually impossible to read). So...
Look for the Celtics to try to try to make a serious bid for either:
Chris Andersen
Zaza Pachulia
or Marcin Gortat.
Andersen and Pachulia are both unrestricted, but each has a catch. Denver may be under pressure to offer Andersen a lot of money (more than we would) or face fan wrath (they love him over there). Pachulia was making $4M (aka more than he deserves), though he has played under Doc's coaching before and claimed that he would accept less to play for a better team than ATL. Gortat, who looks exactly like you would expect a guy named "Gortat" to look, is a restricted free agent making small money, and will probably receive a few offers. Ultimately, I expect Orlando to match any offers and keep him. I think one of these three guys will end up here, and I'm leaning towards Andersen. He's got the edge defensively, he would probably be cheaper than Zaza, he is a well-liked player, and in fitting with the above strategy, shined in the play-offs. Zaza has the bigger size (barely), but he was out-rebounded and out-blocked by the stronger Andersen last season, so who cares.
As for the point guard position, if they do drop Marbury, and I think they will, I believe the Celtics will try to use their lousy draft position and hope to get lucky or work on a trade. Both of these scenarios have a problem though. Unless they are thinking D-league or future draft picks, the trade scenario seems unlikely because as I mentioned, I think the Celtics have a team they are happy with and want to leave it relatively unchanged. We gave up our first round pick back in the KG trade, so our only pick will be number 58 out of 60. Luckily there will be plenty of point guards in the draft this year. My prediction is either:
Scottie Reynolds
or Curtis Jerrells
or settling for A.J. price if both the other two are taken (although if Darren Collison or Patrick Mills are still available, which is not bloody likely, the C's would grab either). I think the Celtics would prefer Reynolds, but what do I know. He has a good chance of lasting until the end of the draft too. Another option may be that the C's try to make a trade for a better draft pick and try to score some of the better point guard talent in the draft. What they would trade, to whom and what position it would get them leaves too many variables for me to bother speculating, though. I will say that if someone would take Giddens or D-league guys, I bet the C's would make this trade if they thought it could get them Collison or Mills, but like I said, I'm not even going to go there.
So, assuming everyone back to best health for 2009-2010, my best guess (guess meaning speculation meaning not actually the case) for a depth chart goes like this:
Centers
1. Kendrick Perkins
Power Forwards
1. Kevin Garnett
2. Glen Davis
3. Leon Powe
4. Chris Andersen
5. Brian Scalabrine
Small Forwards
1. Paul Pierce
2. Bill Walker
Shooting Guards
1. Ray Allen
2. Tony Allen
3. Eddie House
4. J.R. Giddens
Point Guards
1. Rajon Rondo
2. Gabe Pruitt
3. Scottie Reynolds
This works because some of the PF's can play C and some of the SG can play SF. The Celtics may even try to sign a PG like Sessions or Miller and draft a big guy, but I see this as less likely since there are a few cheap big guys in the FA's and a lot of PG's in the draft. The biggest question mark for me is whether Powe and Davis will receive large enough offers that the Celtics will have trouble matching for both players. This may lead to Mikki Moore sticking around in place of one of them, or a move for another cheap big. Again, this is about what I am hoping for (within reason), not a prediction of the future.
I'm no baby like the guys on TV afraid to make predictions, so please comment and tell me if you have different or similar hopes as I do for a 2009 roster... or if these are delusion thoughts from fantasy island.
P.S. - There is a lot of contradictory information online about players' contracts and when they are up. I have found sites that claim Tony Allen and Gabe Pruitt are free agents this year, and others that say they are not until next year. I think that they are free agents next year, but if I'm wrong, this changes everything. Please let me know either way if you have definite answers here.Source URL: http://ledger-heath.blogspot.com/2009/06/my-2009-2010-celtics-hopes.html
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I think the overall strategy is going to be to build a playoff team. We are still going to have KG (who underwent successful surgery and should be good to go), Rondo (who's game has vastly improved), Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce (our play-off master). Making the play-offs, while never automatic, will probably happen. Therefore, I think the idea will be to surround these guys with play-off-proven guys to make another run at a title before thinking about replacing veterans with younger talent. Ainge himself said here, "I don’t anticipate any trades happening in this offseason involving any of our core players."
Anyways, starting with our guys first:
Celtics free agents (players who will need a contract extension or a new contract to continue playing):
Restricted FA's ("restricted" means that if another team signs a contract with the player, the celtics have 15 days to match that contract and keep the player, or let him sign with the other team. Otherwise the player signs with no one.)
Leon Powe
Glen Davis
Unrestricted FA's (The player can sign with whichever team he wants or with no one)
Mikki Moore
Stephon Marbury
Eddie House (Eddie has a player option which means he can extend his contract for another year for the same salary as last season).
I think Powe and Davis will be kept. Davis's performance in the playoffs this year exceeded all expectations, especially on the offensive end. Likewise, Powe's consistency and his 2008 playoff performance was also excellent. Plus Powe, from what I hear, is a Doc Rivers' favorite and a total team player. The only issue I see here is if signing both of these guys becomes a financial strain, they may just keep one. If this is the case, my guess would be Powe stays, since both are proven post-season players but Powe has better post moves, consistency, and defense. The Celtics front office has expressed interest in another jump shooter, which could mean that they are going to let Davis go (he has a jump shot, and a pretty good one now, as opposed to Powe, which has no jump shot), or it could mean that they love jump shooters and would rather sign Davis. Again, I just hope they both stay.
I think the Celtics will consider other options and probably find one before resigning Mikki. People argue that his decent jump shooting and length make him a hard player to replace, but I don't see that outweighing his poor fouling, and lack of defense, outside of the occasional block. Plus he is thin and gets muscled around in the paint a lot on both ends.
Marbury is a tough call. There aren't really many (if any) choices if the C's want a different back-up point guard. Though he saw limited playing time, he didn't perform that well. Ultimately, I think he will be gone. This will leave us with shooting guards and Rondo, which seemed to work, pre-marbury, partially because Rondo is young and can handle a lot of minutes. Pruitt, a trade, a lucky draft pick and/or even maybe Tony Allen may all help this cause.
I think House will be back too. I am concerned because he ended last year with such a bang that other teams may overvalue him and offer him more money than we would, but his reputation for being streaky is well-known, plus I think he likes it here. Honestly, I would love him to stay here because he spreads defenses, gets the crowd going and the celtics know how to use him perfectly. They give him the ball a few times when he comes in, if he knocks down shots, he can go on a run and decimate a team from 3-land. If he isn't feeling it, they rest him or use him as a decoy to spread defense because even if he isn't rolling, teams know now to never give him open looks. Plus I don't think anyone has as quick a shot as House. His defense is the only problem here, but I don't think it's a big enough problem to justify letting him go.
Now for the rest of the free agents in the league. I think, given the strategy I mentioned first, that there are probably only a few players the Celtics would want to sign, and the team will probably remain close to the same as last season. The Celtics biggest interest will be in the Center and Point Guard positions, I would have to believe. Also, our payroll was well over the salary cap last year and will be well over the salary cap again this year if major changes are not made. I'm not going into the rulebook of the NBA salary cap because it is between "US tax code" and "Boston's road system" on the list of World's Most Convoluted Things. Just know that generally speaking, the further over it you are, the more money you will have to pay to the NBA on top of the salaries you pay. Although no one wants to pay luxury taxes, this might not be a big deal to our owners, cause they are filthy füçĸîñg rich (note my censoring, which makes the censored word virtually impossible to read). So...
Look for the Celtics to try to try to make a serious bid for either:
Chris Andersen
Zaza Pachulia
or Marcin Gortat.
Andersen and Pachulia are both unrestricted, but each has a catch. Denver may be under pressure to offer Andersen a lot of money (more than we would) or face fan wrath (they love him over there). Pachulia was making $4M (aka more than he deserves), though he has played under Doc's coaching before and claimed that he would accept less to play for a better team than ATL. Gortat, who looks exactly like you would expect a guy named "Gortat" to look, is a restricted free agent making small money, and will probably receive a few offers. Ultimately, I expect Orlando to match any offers and keep him. I think one of these three guys will end up here, and I'm leaning towards Andersen. He's got the edge defensively, he would probably be cheaper than Zaza, he is a well-liked player, and in fitting with the above strategy, shined in the play-offs. Zaza has the bigger size (barely), but he was out-rebounded and out-blocked by the stronger Andersen last season, so who cares.
As for the point guard position, if they do drop Marbury, and I think they will, I believe the Celtics will try to use their lousy draft position and hope to get lucky or work on a trade. Both of these scenarios have a problem though. Unless they are thinking D-league or future draft picks, the trade scenario seems unlikely because as I mentioned, I think the Celtics have a team they are happy with and want to leave it relatively unchanged. We gave up our first round pick back in the KG trade, so our only pick will be number 58 out of 60. Luckily there will be plenty of point guards in the draft this year. My prediction is either:
Scottie Reynolds
or Curtis Jerrells
or settling for A.J. price if both the other two are taken (although if Darren Collison or Patrick Mills are still available, which is not bloody likely, the C's would grab either). I think the Celtics would prefer Reynolds, but what do I know. He has a good chance of lasting until the end of the draft too. Another option may be that the C's try to make a trade for a better draft pick and try to score some of the better point guard talent in the draft. What they would trade, to whom and what position it would get them leaves too many variables for me to bother speculating, though. I will say that if someone would take Giddens or D-league guys, I bet the C's would make this trade if they thought it could get them Collison or Mills, but like I said, I'm not even going to go there.
So, assuming everyone back to best health for 2009-2010, my best guess (guess meaning speculation meaning not actually the case) for a depth chart goes like this:
Centers
1. Kendrick Perkins
Power Forwards
1. Kevin Garnett
2. Glen Davis
3. Leon Powe
4. Chris Andersen
5. Brian Scalabrine
Small Forwards
1. Paul Pierce
2. Bill Walker
Shooting Guards
1. Ray Allen
2. Tony Allen
3. Eddie House
4. J.R. Giddens
Point Guards
1. Rajon Rondo
2. Gabe Pruitt
3. Scottie Reynolds
This works because some of the PF's can play C and some of the SG can play SF. The Celtics may even try to sign a PG like Sessions or Miller and draft a big guy, but I see this as less likely since there are a few cheap big guys in the FA's and a lot of PG's in the draft. The biggest question mark for me is whether Powe and Davis will receive large enough offers that the Celtics will have trouble matching for both players. This may lead to Mikki Moore sticking around in place of one of them, or a move for another cheap big. Again, this is about what I am hoping for (within reason), not a prediction of the future.
I'm no baby like the guys on TV afraid to make predictions, so please comment and tell me if you have different or similar hopes as I do for a 2009 roster... or if these are delusion thoughts from fantasy island.
P.S. - There is a lot of contradictory information online about players' contracts and when they are up. I have found sites that claim Tony Allen and Gabe Pruitt are free agents this year, and others that say they are not until next year. I think that they are free agents next year, but if I'm wrong, this changes everything. Please let me know either way if you have definite answers here.Source URL: http://ledger-heath.blogspot.com/2009/06/my-2009-2010-celtics-hopes.html
Visit ledger heath for Daily Updated Hairstyles Collection
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